Andy Pettitte Pitches Well Against The Royals...But Can Someone Tell Me Why?

Mind-boggling stuff in the YES broadcast booth tonight. Michael Kay and Al Leiter just spent a solid five minutes contemplating the reason(s) that Andy Pettitte has compiled a 19-3 record against the Kansas City Royals, with a 3.58 ERA, over his 13 year career.

Here are the "factors" that they came up with over the course of their discussion:

--Pettitte gets pumped-up against "this color uniform."
--Pettitte likes pitching in Kaufman Stadium.
--Pettitte likes pitching in Yankee Stadium.
--This game (baseball) is very much "mental."

Study those carefully while I consider all of this.

Let's see.

Can I come up with a better reason?

Hmmm....

Well, staring at those blue helmets would certainly take my game to the next level...

I just don't know...

That record is practically Biblical...

This is a tough one...

Oh, forget it. I just can't...WAIT!

Oh, yeah.

How about the fact that the Kansas City Royals have been fucking horrible for as long as Andy Pettitte has been in the league?!

Kansas City's collective record since 1995 (including 2008): 934 - 1268.

Thus, the Royals are 334 games under .500 over the last 13 years! 334!

Andy Pettitte is 91 games over .500 on his own during that same time frame.

Michael? Al? Do you think that, when a good pitcher faces a god-awful lineup for a decade, the potential outcome might favor the good pitcher?

But, then again...baseball is a seriously mental game.
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He Who Must Not Be Named

Something wicked this way comes.

With Dan Giese now headed to the DL, the Yankees are suddenly in need of a 4th starter.

Rumblings have grown into whispers, and whispers (I fear) will soon turn to chilled cries of horror.

Carl Pavano may be ready to return to The Bronx.

If this misfortune is due to befall us, it is understandable. The Connecticut Kid's contract is coming off of the books and the Yankees might certainly want to squeeze some "production" out of their prized, walking infirmary. What's more, when your other pitching option is Phil Hughes, the (former?) crown jewel of prospects, it seems logical that Pavano becomes the guy you rush. What does Brian Cashman care if Pavano is not quite "there"? Get on the mound, dipshit.

So, on the ever-more-realistic chance that Carl makes it back to the Bigs (without incident), here are the possible outcomes, as I see them.

Please choose one of the following:

A) Carl Pavano returns and is abysmal; the Yankees miss the playoffs, and Carl rides, ever-so-quietly, into the sunset, never to be heard from again.

B) Carl Pavano returns and is astoundingly good; the Yankees ride to a world championship on Carl's fragile back; Carl is rewarded by Brian Cashman (whose job has been saved) with a new contract and his career is reborn.

C) Carl Pavano returns and removes himself from his first start in the 3rd inning, citing an unspecified "soreness" that no medical test can confirm or locate; Carl is never heard from again.

D) Car Pavano returns and pitches with a Darrell Rasner-esque mediocrity; the Yankees miss the playoffs, but Carl's performance is just passable enough to warrant a $1 million, incentive-laden, 1-year contract from...let's say...the St. Louis Cardinals.

Personally, I'll vote "D," not only because it's baseball economics at its finest, but because Pavano's stealing money from the Yankees for four years and then parlaying that theft into yet another contract feels like the appropriate way for this whole disaster to end.

Thoughts? Alternative (more infuriating) scenarios?
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Optimist? Pessimist? Either Way, You're Wrong

With the dreadful 3-7 West Coast road trip officially (and unfortunately) in the books, many Yankees fans, Yankees haters, sports writers, and talk show hosts have decided that now is the time to declare the Yankees dead in the water. In fact, in today's New York Post, Peter King has gone so far as to eulogize the Bombers' 2008 campaign.

Okay. Fine. You're more than welcome to dance on the grave of a team that looks more pathetic than it has in recent memory. The road trip was atrocious, and we certainly can't deny that the boys currently deserve a vote of "no confidence"; however, most people are burying the Yankees for silly reasons. Pessimists argue that the Yankees show "no heart," "no desire," "inconsistency," blah, blah, blah.

On the other hand, optimists who are hell-bent on seeing the Yankees make the postseason are equally misguided in their reasoning. Case and point: today I heard a caller to WFAN actually argue that the Yankees will make the playoffs because they have a $200 million payroll. When pressed as to explain how that guaranteed them a berth, the caller argued, "They haven't missed the playoffs in any year that they've had a $200 million payroll!"

Gulp.

Well, I just don't know where I fall in this debate. To say the Yankees are done is premature, but to say they are going to make a run into October seems ignorant. So, to see just how much doo-doo this team has stepped in, I went back and looked at the standings as of August 14th in each year of the Yanks' playoff run. What I found should alarm us all.

8/14/2008: 64-57
AL East: 9 G back of Tampa Bay (3rd Place)
Wild Card: 6 G back of Boston (3rd Place)

8/14/2007: 67-52
AL East: 5 G back of Boston (2nd Place)
Wild Card: 1/2 G back of Seattle (2nd Place)

8/14/2006: 69-46
AL East: 2 G ahead of Boston (1st Place)

8/14/2005: 64-52
AL East: 4 1/2 G back of Boston (2nd Place)
Wild Card: 3 1/2 G back of Oakland (2nd Place)

8/14/2004: 75-41
AL East: 10 1/2 G ahead of Boston (1st Place)

8/14/2003: 72-47
AL East: 3 G ahead of Boston (1st Place)

8/14/2002: 74-44
AL East: 5 G ahead of Boston (1st Place)

8/14/2001: 70-49
AL East: 4 G ahead of Boston (1st Place)

8/14/2000: 64-50
AL East: 4 G ahead of Boston (1st Place)

8/14/1999: 71-44
AL East: 6 1/2 G ahead of Boston (1st Place)

8/14/1998: 89-29 (!)
AL East: 18 1/2 G ahead of Boston (!) (1st Place)

8/14/1997: 71-48
AL East: 4 G behind Baltimore (2nd Place)
Wild Card: 7 G ahead of Texas (1st Place)

8/14/1996: 70-49
AL East: 7 1/2 G ahead of Baltimore (1st Place)

8/14/1995: 51-49
AL East: 10 G behind Boston (2nd Place)
Wild Card: 1 1/2 G behind Texas (tied for 2nd Place)

Remember last season when everyone was proclaiming that the Yankees were done in early July? It looked pretty bleak, but by 8/14/07 the team was essentially tied for the Wild Card lead and charging. Compare that to a 6 game deficit as of today...not good. Also, in 1995 (before the soon-to-be-powerhouse-Yankees was fully in place) the team was only 2 games over .500 but a mere 1 1/2 games out of a Wild Card berth. Compare that, again, to our current situation and that knot in your stomach might just grow a little tighter.

So, what am I saying? In short: in their decade-and-a-half run, the Yankees have never been this far behind this late in the season . Thus, while we certainly can't count them out, the Yankees will literally have to overcome their deepest statistical deficit in order to make the playoffs for a 14th straight year.

We're not giving up here. We're just being realistic.

Oh, and stop citing 1978 as your argument that the team is going to make it. On 8/14/1978 the Yankees were 8 games behind the Red Sox (without the benefit of a Wild Card race) whereas the Bombers find themselves 9 games in back of Tampa Bay today. Moreover, the '78 argument is rendered moot because of the fact that the reason people still talk about 1978 is because it was a once-in-a-freaking-lifetime anomaly.
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An Analogy

I remember when I used to take multiple choice tests in high school. Occasionally, you'd get a stretch of consecutive questions that all, apparently, had the same answer (let's say, for the sake of this example, "C").

Even though you might have been feeling confident with your answers, when you got to, about, the fourth question in a row with an answer of "C," you'd begin thinking to yourself, "One of these must be wrong. The teacher wouldn't put four "C's" in a row. That's just not logical."

So, inevitably, you'd psych yourself out and change an answer to (let's say) "D," because you had suddenly decided to play a one-sided, psychological chess match with your teacher; a teacher who probably hadn't even realized that he had crafted four questions in a row with an answer of "C."

When you got the test back a few days later, that one answer you had changed to "D" was, of course, wrong, and lo and behold, all four answers were, in fact, "C." You'd then curse yourself, swearing to never again go against your instinct.

By sitting Johnny Damon tonight against the Twins in favor of Justin Christian (hitting leadoff, no less) -- the same Johnny Damon that is 13-32 (.406) on a road trip that has seen your team lose 5 of 7 games and fall four back of the Wild Card lead -- Joe Girardi has essentially changed his answer from "C" to "D."

After watching the Yankees get shut-out tonight and fall to defeat for the fourth consecutive time, it's fair to say that the skipper probably wants that decision back.

I learned to stop overthinking in high school, Joe. How 'bout you?
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When John Sterling Thinks You Suck, You Must Really Suck

The Yankees are spiraling out of control, and you need not actually watch a game to understand that this is true. All you need to do is listen.

Normally, on the radio side of things, John Sterling views the Yanks with the proverbial rose-colored glasses. When things go well, it's due to the perfection of the pinstripes; when things go awry, well, "you just can't figure this game out." On the flipside (the TV side), Michael Kay likes to avoid any genuine criticism of the Bombers for fear of offending sensitive YES Network ears (i.e., the suits that sign his checks).

To listen to both of these yakkers in the last two days is to listen to two "glass half-full" voices that are ready to simply smash said glass against the floor.

Yesterday, in the midst of what would become yet another crushing loss, Sterling took the Yankees to task for repeatedly failing to get runners in from third with less than two outs. With no clever homerun calls on the horizon, and seemingly at his wit's end, The Voice literally counted-up the missed opportunities, conjecturing that, had the Yankees shown any ability with RISP throughout the year, the team would not only be winning this game, but would be atop their division. Tough talk from a dude that spends 75% of his air time repeating the word "amazing."

Meanwhile, Michael Kay, during tonight's Yanks/Twins game, became nearly apoplectic as the boys (yet again) failed to drive-in a runner from third (this time with no one out). "Un-be-lievable" enunciated Kay as Melky Cabrera grounded into a routine double play to end the inning. He then spent the better part of the next half-inning theorizing on just how an entire lineup could fail so miserably, so often, in trying to complete a simple task.

While these examples may not seem earth-shatteringly critical, the simple fact that they were uttered at all (by these two, no less) is proof positive that the organization is in full-fledged panic mode. And, really, who can blame them?
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Ian Kennedy Never Met An Inning In Which He Couldn't Get Pulled

About halfway between Scranton-Wilkes Barre, PA and The Bronx, NY, can be found West Milford, NJ. This is where Ian Kennedy should make his home...maybe even start his own minor league franchise.

You see, Mr. Kennedy has all the makings of a AAAA pitcher; better than the best minor leaguers, but worse than the worst Major Leaguers. While he looks good in Pennsylvania, under the bright lights of the Big Time he is a lost little boy.

In the minors, Ian has posted a lovely career ERA of 2.01 and an even lovelier WHIP 0.95. He has struck out 214 men in just under 204 innings, given up only 9 homeruns, and yielded only 127 hits.

In the Majors, the same sad clown has pitched to the tune of a 5.56 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP. In just under 60 innings he has surrendered 6 homeruns and struck out 41 men. Mind you, this does not even take into account his "triumphant return" against the Angels of 2+ innings, 9 hits, and 5 ER.

To make matters worse? Kennedy is a bonafied bullpen assassin, as he has averaged a whopping 4 innings in 10 Major League starts this year.

It would be logical to cry "sample size" and reason that the kid just needs time and warrants patience. All true; however, aside from the stats, it's the body language that scares me.



Is this the kind of look that sends chills down the spine of opponents? And, consider, it is a look repeated inning after inning, hanging-changeup after hanging-changeup.

Good luck, Ian. You're gonna need it.

UPDATE (8/9): A day after his disastrous turn, Kennedy is catching heat for remarking after the game that he was "not too upset" about getting shelled. This particular comment doesn't bother me; however, it's another (less publicized) reflection that makes me chuckle. After the game Kennedy also commented: "It's my first bad outing in a long time, since the All-Star Break." Son, in case you didn't notice, your ass was in Wilkes-Barre during the All-Star Break, and those great starts you remember so fondly? All in the minors.
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Let's Play "Name That Headline"!

With Xavier Nady propelling the Yankees to a 14-9, "come-from-behind" (x 2) victory over the Angels today (four hits, 6 RBI), I think today is the perfect day to play a round of "Name That Headline". Your goal: correctly guess the wordplay / pun / rhyme that will grace the back cover of at least one of the major New York tabloids tomorrow.

I'll give it a go!

"X Man"
"X Marks The Spot"
"X Factor"
"Xavier The Savior"
"Thanks, We Nady'd That"
"Astros Sweep Mets"
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Riddle Me This

I wrote the other day of Mariano Rivera's bizarre tendency to spit the bit in non-save situations. It happened to be an evening on which he allowed a homerun in "garbage time" against the Baltimore Orioles. The homerun ended up being the difference, after a 9th inning rally by the Yankees came up one run short.

It has happened again tonight, but this time the pill is even more bitter. Once again, Rivera coughed-up a game; this time to the Anaheim Angels; this time in what was a 0-0 game.

My frustration over this strange tendency of The Sandman's should not confused with WFAN - esque overreaction. I'm not saying that Rivera is "losing it," or that he's not still a dominant pitcher. What I am saying, though, is that his "Save" situation vs. "Non-Save" situation splits are ridiculous and warrant heavy, heavy scrutiny. Observe:

Save Situations (2008):
Games: 26
Saves: 26
Innings: 27.1
Earned Runs: 1 (!)
ERA: 0.33 (!)
WHIP: 0.52 (!)
Homeruns: 0
Strikeouts: 33

Non-Save Situations (2008)
Games: 18
Innings: 21
Earned Runs: 7
ERA: 3.43
WHIP: 1.00
Homeruns: 3
Strikeouts: 25

Taken alone, the "Non-Save" splits are fine (probably better than a large percentage of closers); however, compared to the "Save" splits, it is obvious that Rivera is simply a different pitcher this year when the situation is not, shall we say, dire. His "Non-Save" ERA is 10 x higher than his "Save" ERA (which is, admittedly, inhuman), his WHIP doubles when he's not protecting a lead, he shows a proclivity for the long ball, and his strikeout ratio suffers.

After Mo gave up the winning run tonight, Michael Kay wondered aloud if the "adrenaline rush" is just not the same for Rivera in non-save situations. This is lunacy on two fronts: 1) In a 0-0 game in the 9th inning, against the best team in baseball, on a night when you find yourself 1.5 games back of a Wild Card birth and 4.5 games out of your division, to say that Rivera lacked adrenaline is just plain lazy analysis; 2) Mariano Rivera is in the first year of a contract that will pay him $45,000,000. Is it really that hard to pump it up?

To place the blame on Rivera for a loss like this is unfair -- the team had five hits and looked uninspired on all offensive fronts -- but it's time to wonder aloud why our Hall-of-Fame-closer can't handle a tie game. Is it an anomoly, or is there an answer?
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The Madman: Yankees, Why Do You Tease Me?

There is no better time than following a torrid winning streak to complain about the team that you love.

I realize now how unfortunate it is that we did not post much of anything over the course of eight wonderful days for the Yankees. We saw lots of wins, resulting in a legitimate division-lead push, a fantastic (if mildly overrated) trade, and a series win in Fenway. If only we had decided to chime in then, and talk about how proud we were of this team.

But, alas, The Madman has returned to spew his bile in the midst of a logic-defying losing streak; a losing streak that has brought back to light all of the Yankees' shortcomings: a lack of dependable starting pitching, a "light switch" offense that rises and falls like an ocean tide (ooh, figurative language!), and a frustrating tendency to play down to the level of the competition.

Things, in no particular order, that have caused me to pout:

It's my own fault that I continue to listen to sports talk radio, but I can't believe how many "fans" call-in to complain that Alex Rodriguez and Richie Sexson are problems for this team. Does anybody watch the games? A-Rod continues to produce and produce and produce. Richie Sexson continues to sit on the bench, the bench, the bench and (when on the field) play firstbase at a higher level than Giambi and Betemit put together. Please direct your frustrations at legitimate concerns, like...

Melky Cabrera. Everybody makes a big deal about the injuries the Yankees have suffered this year, but I maintain that it's the injuries that haven't befallen us that are holding us back. Why can't Melky and his .652 OPS (2nd worst amongst starters), his 127 Total Bases (worst amongst starters), and his 28 Walks (worst amongst starters) pull a hamstring once in a while?

Robinson Cano. Thanks, Robbie, for remembering that you play professional baseball! If I hear one more person talk about the "cold weather" hampering Cano's swing I'm going to impale him or her with a piece of shattered, maple bat. A really hot July and August does not negate three months of shit. The man makes millions to hit the ball and (occasionally) field it. Learn to do both of those things - you know - the whole fucking year.

Darrel Rasner. Will someone please put this kid out of his misery? Pitching to a 1.80 ERA in May, Rasner ballooned to a 6.47 in June and, fortunately, has trimmed that ERA down to a healthy 6.32 in July. I know ERA doesn't tell you everything you need to know about a pitcher, but in Rasner's case, it does. He stinks. A lot. And yet, the brass seems to believe that he'll return to form. What they don't realize is that Darrell is in form. This is him. And that's a problem.

Derek Jeter. I could talk about The Captain's subpar year, but that doesn't really get to me. In the end, his numbers will be fine. He's actually on pace to strike out less than he has in the last five years; however, my complaint revolves around one statistic in particular: double plays. Derek has grounded into 16 of these bad boys so far in 2008, leading the team. In the last week alone, I've seen him hit into three, each time with a runner in scoring position. This type of inning-killing, out-creating must stop in order for the Yankees to succeed.

Jorge Posada. Damn you, sir, and your shoulder muscle tear. What frustrates me about Posada, besides the massive contract that looks like it will serve as a pre-pension pension by the time these four years are up, is the diva-like attitude that Jorge adopted, all the while knowing that his shoulder was shot. He complained about not wanting to play first; that he was a catcher and wanted to catch (goddamit!); that it was unfair to say he could no longer make the throw to second. A week later, he's riding the pine and deciding when (not if) to have his surgery. Thanks for holding us up for a good two months, Jorge. Much obliged.

Mariano Rivera: I know. Blasphemy. But, seriously, Mo, is the excitement of a save opportunity the only thing that gets you going? Rivera has given up runs in only seven (!) appearances this year, yet six (!) of those appearances have been non-save situations (with the Yankees either tied or trailing). The most recent example has occurred as I type this very complaint, as Mo has given up a "garbage time" homerun against the Orioles that has ended up being the game loser, as the Yankees have executed one of their patented "Holy-Shit-It's-The-9th-Inning-Let's- Take-Our-At-Bats-Seriously" comebacks. Michael Kay likes to insist that Rivera is having his best year ever. Trust me...he's not.

Xavier Nady / Damaso Marte. They really haven't done anything badly. But they will! Oh, yes, they will.

And The Madman will be watching.
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Seriously, Dude? Come On. Seriously?

Let's use our imaginations for a second.

You're Alex Rodriguez.

With a runner on first in the 9th inning of a tight game -- a game that, if won, will give your team a sweep of the Wild Card-contending Oakland A's -- you are heads-up enough to back-up Derek Jeter on an errant throw from Bobby Abreu after the aforementioned right fielder has already dropped a routine fly ball. In backing-up the shortstop, you are able to flip the ball back to Jeter and force out the runner (who had initially retreated to first base, thinking the ball would be caught). For all intents and purposes, by being alert and defensively intelligent, you have saved the game and contributed to pulling your team back into striking distance of the division lead.

You wake up this morning and pick up the NY Daily News, fully expecting to find out that you're still banging Madonna, but believing that you will be celebrated for your "heads-upness."

Instead, you read this, by Mark Lelinwalla:

"Alex Rodriguez did his best Derek Jeter impersonation Sunday with a flip play to help the Yankees beat the Oakland A's.

Of course, Jeter's came in a playoff game while A-Rod helped seal an otherwise routine July triumph."

You close the paper and stick another pin in your Derek Jeter voodoo doll, realizing that no matter what you do on the field, it will never, ever, be good enough. For anyone.
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