With the dreadful 3-7 West Coast road trip officially (and unfortunately) in the books, many Yankees fans, Yankees haters, sports writers, and talk show hosts have decided that now is the time to declare the Yankees dead in the water. In fact, in today's New York Post, Peter King has gone so far as to eulogize the Bombers' 2008 campaign.
Okay. Fine. You're more than welcome to dance on the grave of a team that looks more pathetic than it has in recent memory. The road trip was atrocious, and we certainly can't deny that the boys currently deserve a vote of "no confidence"; however, most people are burying the Yankees for silly reasons. Pessimists argue that the Yankees show "no heart," "no desire," "inconsistency," blah, blah, blah.
On the other hand, optimists who are hell-bent on seeing the Yankees make the postseason are equally misguided in their reasoning. Case and point: today I heard a caller to WFAN actually argue that the Yankees will make the playoffs because they have a $200 million payroll. When pressed as to explain how that guaranteed them a berth, the caller argued, "They haven't missed the playoffs in any year that they've had a $200 million payroll!"
Gulp.
Well, I just don't know where I fall in this debate. To say the Yankees are done is premature, but to say they are going to make a run into October seems ignorant. So, to see just how much doo-doo this team has stepped in, I went back and looked at the standings as of August 14th in each year of the Yanks' playoff run. What I found should alarm us all.
8/14/2008: 64-57
AL East: 9 G back of Tampa Bay (3rd Place)
Wild Card: 6 G back of Boston (3rd Place)
8/14/2007: 67-52
AL East: 5 G back of Boston (2nd Place)
Wild Card: 1/2 G back of Seattle (2nd Place)
8/14/2006: 69-46
AL East: 2 G ahead of Boston (1st Place)
8/14/2005: 64-52
AL East: 4 1/2 G back of Boston (2nd Place)
Wild Card: 3 1/2 G back of Oakland (2nd Place)
8/14/2004: 75-41
AL East: 10 1/2 G ahead of Boston (1st Place)
8/14/2003: 72-47
AL East: 3 G ahead of Boston (1st Place)
8/14/2002: 74-44
AL East: 5 G ahead of Boston (1st Place)
8/14/2001: 70-49
AL East: 4 G ahead of Boston (1st Place)
8/14/2000: 64-50
AL East: 4 G ahead of Boston (1st Place)
8/14/1999: 71-44
AL East: 6 1/2 G ahead of Boston (1st Place)
8/14/1998: 89-29 (!)
AL East: 18 1/2 G ahead of Boston (!) (1st Place)
8/14/1997: 71-48
AL East: 4 G behind Baltimore (2nd Place)
Wild Card: 7 G ahead of Texas (1st Place)
8/14/1996: 70-49
AL East: 7 1/2 G ahead of Baltimore (1st Place)
8/14/1995: 51-49
AL East: 10 G behind Boston (2nd Place)
Wild Card: 1 1/2 G behind Texas (tied for 2nd Place)
Remember last season when everyone was proclaiming that the Yankees were done in early July? It looked pretty bleak, but by 8/14/07 the team was essentially tied for the Wild Card lead and charging. Compare that to a 6 game deficit as of today...not good. Also, in 1995 (before the soon-to-be-powerhouse-Yankees was fully in place) the team was only 2 games over .500 but a mere 1 1/2 games out of a Wild Card berth. Compare that, again, to our current situation and that knot in your stomach might just grow a little tighter.
So, what am I saying? In short: in their decade-and-a-half run, the Yankees have never been this far behind this late in the season . Thus, while we certainly can't count them out, the Yankees will literally have to overcome their deepest statistical deficit in order to make the playoffs for a 14th straight year.
We're not giving up here. We're just being realistic.
Oh, and stop citing 1978 as your argument that the team is going to make it. On 8/14/1978 the Yankees were 8 games behind the Red Sox (without the benefit of a Wild Card race) whereas the Bombers find themselves 9 games in back of Tampa Bay today. Moreover, the '78 argument is rendered moot because of the fact that the reason people still talk about 1978 is because it was a once-in-a-freaking-lifetime anomaly.
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Showing posts with label statistics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label statistics. Show all posts
Thursday, August 14, 2008
Friday, August 8, 2008
Ian Kennedy Never Met An Inning In Which He Couldn't Get Pulled
About halfway between Scranton-Wilkes Barre, PA and The Bronx, NY, can be found West Milford, NJ. This is where Ian Kennedy should make his home...maybe even start his own minor league franchise.
You see, Mr. Kennedy has all the makings of a AAAA pitcher; better than the best minor leaguers, but worse than the worst Major Leaguers. While he looks good in Pennsylvania, under the bright lights of the Big Time he is a lost little boy.
In the minors, Ian has posted a lovely career ERA of 2.01 and an even lovelier WHIP 0.95. He has struck out 214 men in just under 204 innings, given up only 9 homeruns, and yielded only 127 hits.
In the Majors, the same sad clown has pitched to the tune of a 5.56 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP. In just under 60 innings he has surrendered 6 homeruns and struck out 41 men. Mind you, this does not even take into account his "triumphant return" against the Angels of 2+ innings, 9 hits, and 5 ER.
To make matters worse? Kennedy is a bonafied bullpen assassin, as he has averaged a whopping 4 innings in 10 Major League starts this year.
It would be logical to cry "sample size" and reason that the kid just needs time and warrants patience. All true; however, aside from the stats, it's the body language that scares me.
Is this the kind of look that sends chills down the spine of opponents? And, consider, it is a look repeated inning after inning, hanging-changeup after hanging-changeup.
Good luck, Ian. You're gonna need it.
UPDATE (8/9): A day after his disastrous turn, Kennedy is catching heat for remarking after the game that he was "not too upset" about getting shelled. This particular comment doesn't bother me; however, it's another (less publicized) reflection that makes me chuckle. After the game Kennedy also commented: "It's my first bad outing in a long time, since the All-Star Break." Son, in case you didn't notice, your ass was in Wilkes-Barre during the All-Star Break, and those great starts you remember so fondly? All in the minors.
_
You see, Mr. Kennedy has all the makings of a AAAA pitcher; better than the best minor leaguers, but worse than the worst Major Leaguers. While he looks good in Pennsylvania, under the bright lights of the Big Time he is a lost little boy.
In the minors, Ian has posted a lovely career ERA of 2.01 and an even lovelier WHIP 0.95. He has struck out 214 men in just under 204 innings, given up only 9 homeruns, and yielded only 127 hits.
In the Majors, the same sad clown has pitched to the tune of a 5.56 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP. In just under 60 innings he has surrendered 6 homeruns and struck out 41 men. Mind you, this does not even take into account his "triumphant return" against the Angels of 2+ innings, 9 hits, and 5 ER.
To make matters worse? Kennedy is a bonafied bullpen assassin, as he has averaged a whopping 4 innings in 10 Major League starts this year.
It would be logical to cry "sample size" and reason that the kid just needs time and warrants patience. All true; however, aside from the stats, it's the body language that scares me.
Is this the kind of look that sends chills down the spine of opponents? And, consider, it is a look repeated inning after inning, hanging-changeup after hanging-changeup.
Good luck, Ian. You're gonna need it.
UPDATE (8/9): A day after his disastrous turn, Kennedy is catching heat for remarking after the game that he was "not too upset" about getting shelled. This particular comment doesn't bother me; however, it's another (less publicized) reflection that makes me chuckle. After the game Kennedy also commented: "It's my first bad outing in a long time, since the All-Star Break." Son, in case you didn't notice, your ass was in Wilkes-Barre during the All-Star Break, and those great starts you remember so fondly? All in the minors.
_
Monday, July 14, 2008
To The Contrary, Sign Sexson
Many, many, many Yankees fans and bloggers (and media personalities, and scouts, and omnipresent "sources") have railed against the idea of bringing Richie Sexson to The Bronx for the remainder of the season. No one wants anything to do with this "loser" for whom "the Yankees have no need," to borrow a couple of remarks from other commentaries.
However, if I may be so bold (and I may cuz it's my site), this is actually shortsighted resignation on the part of the fans. Let me explain:
First of all, Sexson will play for the league minimum wherever he lands, as Seattle is still on the hook for the remainder of his $15,500,000 salary in 2008 (gulp).
Secondly, to say that the Yankees have no need for a right-handed bat is lunacy. All of their power, with the exception of A-Rod, comes from the left side. Furthermore, at this point, two of those left-handed hitters are on the shelf (Matsui and Damon). Tell me, are you truly comfortable with the menacing presence of Jose Molina, Wilson Betemit, righty-Melky, and an occasional appearance by Justin "God-Fearing" Christian?
No, neither am I. So, please don't tell me that Sexson has no roll. He's an acutal first baseman, with a career Fielding % of .994 (which is more than can be said for Betemit, Jorge Posada, and -- let's face it -- Jason Giambi), and he's a right-handed hitter who, when he connects, hits the ball a long friggin' way. All of these things are currently lacking in Yankees Universe.
And lastly -- and here's where I blow your mind -- for all of Sexson's shittiness this year, he's been insanely good against left-handed pitching. Please observe:
vs. Lefties (in 61 AB): .344 BA / .423 OBP / .623 SLG / 1.046 OPS
Yowzas! Not bad for a dude who just got cut by one of the worst teams in baseball.
Of course, against righties, Sexson is atrocious (.178 / .281 / .304 / .585), but the point here is that the Yankees won't ever, ever, ever need to use him against right-handed pitching! He will play solely against lefties and leave the righties to face the overstocked, lefty-hitting 1B contingent. And, his role as glorified bench player will be made completely palatable by the fact the Mariners are picking up the tab.
So, bring on Richie Sexson for all the reasons stated above.
Those, and the fact that he's got "Sex" in his name, making our job as bloggers much, much easier.
_
However, if I may be so bold (and I may cuz it's my site), this is actually shortsighted resignation on the part of the fans. Let me explain:
First of all, Sexson will play for the league minimum wherever he lands, as Seattle is still on the hook for the remainder of his $15,500,000 salary in 2008 (gulp).
Secondly, to say that the Yankees have no need for a right-handed bat is lunacy. All of their power, with the exception of A-Rod, comes from the left side. Furthermore, at this point, two of those left-handed hitters are on the shelf (Matsui and Damon). Tell me, are you truly comfortable with the menacing presence of Jose Molina, Wilson Betemit, righty-Melky, and an occasional appearance by Justin "God-Fearing" Christian?
No, neither am I. So, please don't tell me that Sexson has no roll. He's an acutal first baseman, with a career Fielding % of .994 (which is more than can be said for Betemit, Jorge Posada, and -- let's face it -- Jason Giambi), and he's a right-handed hitter who, when he connects, hits the ball a long friggin' way. All of these things are currently lacking in Yankees Universe.
And lastly -- and here's where I blow your mind -- for all of Sexson's shittiness this year, he's been insanely good against left-handed pitching. Please observe:
vs. Lefties (in 61 AB): .344 BA / .423 OBP / .623 SLG / 1.046 OPS
Yowzas! Not bad for a dude who just got cut by one of the worst teams in baseball.
Of course, against righties, Sexson is atrocious (.178 / .281 / .304 / .585), but the point here is that the Yankees won't ever, ever, ever need to use him against right-handed pitching! He will play solely against lefties and leave the righties to face the overstocked, lefty-hitting 1B contingent. And, his role as glorified bench player will be made completely palatable by the fact the Mariners are picking up the tab.
So, bring on Richie Sexson for all the reasons stated above.
Those, and the fact that he's got "Sex" in his name, making our job as bloggers much, much easier.
_
Wednesday, April 23, 2008
Seriously, The Man Behind The Curtain Is Not Particulary Intelligent
As an undeniably satisfying follow-up to yesterday's post regarding Hank Steinbrenner's rant about Joba Chamberlain and the state of the Yankees pitching, we have a delicious tidbit heretofore undiscovered.
Here's a Hank quote from the now infamous New York Times article: "[Mussina] just needs to learn how to pitch like [45-year-old Phillies pitcher] Jamie Moyer."
Really, Hank? Moose needs to pitch more like Moyer?
Well, shiver-me-timbers! Lookie-lookie:
Most HR given up to Manny Ramirez (career):
1. Jamie Moyer (10)
2. Mike Mussina (9)
Done, and done.
See? And you think no one listens to you, you stupid bastard.
_
Here's a Hank quote from the now infamous New York Times article: "[Mussina] just needs to learn how to pitch like [45-year-old Phillies pitcher] Jamie Moyer."
Really, Hank? Moose needs to pitch more like Moyer?
Well, shiver-me-timbers! Lookie-lookie:
Most HR given up to Manny Ramirez (career):
1. Jamie Moyer (10)
2. Mike Mussina (9)
Done, and done.
See? And you think no one listens to you, you stupid bastard.
_
Tuesday, April 22, 2008
Pay No Attention To The Man Behind The Curtain
While the newly ordained and newly insufferable mouthpiece of the Yankees, Hank Steinbrenner, preens and prickles like a spoiled child, placing his frustration over a 10-10 start on the fact that Joba Chamberlain isn't in the starting rotation, it has become frighteningly apparent that no one in the hierarchy is paying attention to, you know, the games being played on the field.
For instance, although many Yankees bloggers (and reporters, and talk show hosts, and my barber) have already made mention of it, does Joba Chamberlain have anything to do with the team's .231 BA with runners in scoring position? What's more, to add insult to the already injury-plagued point, guess who has the most AB with RISP so far this season? That's right, it's Robinson Cano. He's come to the plate a whopping 24 times with runners at second and/or third and hit to the tune of .167. At the risk of oversimplifying the matter, that statistic would be no different if Joba were starting; ere go, Joba is not your problem.
Point the Second, the Yankees have been shut-out 3 times already this year. For a powerhouse offense, that seems rather awful. 30% of your losses have been shutouts? Hmm. For what it's worth, in 2007, the Yankees were shut-out for the third time on June 27. That's a differential of over two months. Have I removed all context in this case? Yes. But it is still a fact.
What's more, the Yankees have scored 41 innings thus far in 2008. On 8 occasions, the pitching staff has failed to post a goose egg in the next inning. In other words, 20% of the time, the Yankees are giving back runs immediately after scoring them. A small sample size? Indeed. But it is still a fact.
Shall I remark on Jason Giambi's .071 BA and .142 SLG?
Hank & Co.: Do the people who spend countless days and nights watching your team play baseball, and, likely, hundreds of dollars (and hours in traffic) each year attending games, really have to point out how unintelligent you sound? Fix what's broken, instead of wasting your breath on issues "full of sound and fury, signifying nothing."
Oh, yes. I dropped Shakespeare on your ass.
_
For instance, although many Yankees bloggers (and reporters, and talk show hosts, and my barber) have already made mention of it, does Joba Chamberlain have anything to do with the team's .231 BA with runners in scoring position? What's more, to add insult to the already injury-plagued point, guess who has the most AB with RISP so far this season? That's right, it's Robinson Cano. He's come to the plate a whopping 24 times with runners at second and/or third and hit to the tune of .167. At the risk of oversimplifying the matter, that statistic would be no different if Joba were starting; ere go, Joba is not your problem.
Point the Second, the Yankees have been shut-out 3 times already this year. For a powerhouse offense, that seems rather awful. 30% of your losses have been shutouts? Hmm. For what it's worth, in 2007, the Yankees were shut-out for the third time on June 27. That's a differential of over two months. Have I removed all context in this case? Yes. But it is still a fact.
What's more, the Yankees have scored 41 innings thus far in 2008. On 8 occasions, the pitching staff has failed to post a goose egg in the next inning. In other words, 20% of the time, the Yankees are giving back runs immediately after scoring them. A small sample size? Indeed. But it is still a fact.
Shall I remark on Jason Giambi's .071 BA and .142 SLG?
Hank & Co.: Do the people who spend countless days and nights watching your team play baseball, and, likely, hundreds of dollars (and hours in traffic) each year attending games, really have to point out how unintelligent you sound? Fix what's broken, instead of wasting your breath on issues "full of sound and fury, signifying nothing."
Oh, yes. I dropped Shakespeare on your ass.
_
Wednesday, April 16, 2008
This Stat Is Quiet, Like A Fox
I am currently watching the worst game in the history of Major League Baseball. In the top of the 6th inning, nearly three hours after first pitch, the Yankees are leading the Red Sox 11-9.
As I stare, dumbfounded, at my television, gawking at the inability of anyone to get an out, a thought has come to my mind: it seems that one of the reasons the Yankees' 2008 performance has been so "blah" thus far is because none of the team's cylinders ever seem to click concurrently. When the pitching is strong, the offense is anemic. When the bats come alive, the staff implodes. In short, it sure feels like each game is a struggle. I mean, really, didn't they have to work a little too hard to "sweep" Tampa Bay?
So, I looked up two basic stats: Runs Scored, and Runs Against. And I found what I thought I'd find.
(After 16 games)
RUNS SCORED: 67
RUNS AGAINST: 68
Pretty close, ay? The difference is minimal, which seems innocent enough; however, the fact that the two numbers are so close goes to prove that the Yanks aren't even winning convincingly, let alone blowing anybody out.
No wonder I'm tired already.
_
As I stare, dumbfounded, at my television, gawking at the inability of anyone to get an out, a thought has come to my mind: it seems that one of the reasons the Yankees' 2008 performance has been so "blah" thus far is because none of the team's cylinders ever seem to click concurrently. When the pitching is strong, the offense is anemic. When the bats come alive, the staff implodes. In short, it sure feels like each game is a struggle. I mean, really, didn't they have to work a little too hard to "sweep" Tampa Bay?
So, I looked up two basic stats: Runs Scored, and Runs Against. And I found what I thought I'd find.
(After 16 games)
RUNS SCORED: 67
RUNS AGAINST: 68
Pretty close, ay? The difference is minimal, which seems innocent enough; however, the fact that the two numbers are so close goes to prove that the Yanks aren't even winning convincingly, let alone blowing anybody out.
No wonder I'm tired already.
_
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