He Who Must Not Be Named

Something wicked this way comes.

With Dan Giese now headed to the DL, the Yankees are suddenly in need of a 4th starter.

Rumblings have grown into whispers, and whispers (I fear) will soon turn to chilled cries of horror.

Carl Pavano may be ready to return to The Bronx.

If this misfortune is due to befall us, it is understandable. The Connecticut Kid's contract is coming off of the books and the Yankees might certainly want to squeeze some "production" out of their prized, walking infirmary. What's more, when your other pitching option is Phil Hughes, the (former?) crown jewel of prospects, it seems logical that Pavano becomes the guy you rush. What does Brian Cashman care if Pavano is not quite "there"? Get on the mound, dipshit.

So, on the ever-more-realistic chance that Carl makes it back to the Bigs (without incident), here are the possible outcomes, as I see them.

Please choose one of the following:

A) Carl Pavano returns and is abysmal; the Yankees miss the playoffs, and Carl rides, ever-so-quietly, into the sunset, never to be heard from again.

B) Carl Pavano returns and is astoundingly good; the Yankees ride to a world championship on Carl's fragile back; Carl is rewarded by Brian Cashman (whose job has been saved) with a new contract and his career is reborn.

C) Carl Pavano returns and removes himself from his first start in the 3rd inning, citing an unspecified "soreness" that no medical test can confirm or locate; Carl is never heard from again.

D) Car Pavano returns and pitches with a Darrell Rasner-esque mediocrity; the Yankees miss the playoffs, but Carl's performance is just passable enough to warrant a $1 million, incentive-laden, 1-year contract from...let's say...the St. Louis Cardinals.

Personally, I'll vote "D," not only because it's baseball economics at its finest, but because Pavano's stealing money from the Yankees for four years and then parlaying that theft into yet another contract feels like the appropriate way for this whole disaster to end.

Thoughts? Alternative (more infuriating) scenarios?
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Optimist? Pessimist? Either Way, You're Wrong

With the dreadful 3-7 West Coast road trip officially (and unfortunately) in the books, many Yankees fans, Yankees haters, sports writers, and talk show hosts have decided that now is the time to declare the Yankees dead in the water. In fact, in today's New York Post, Peter King has gone so far as to eulogize the Bombers' 2008 campaign.

Okay. Fine. You're more than welcome to dance on the grave of a team that looks more pathetic than it has in recent memory. The road trip was atrocious, and we certainly can't deny that the boys currently deserve a vote of "no confidence"; however, most people are burying the Yankees for silly reasons. Pessimists argue that the Yankees show "no heart," "no desire," "inconsistency," blah, blah, blah.

On the other hand, optimists who are hell-bent on seeing the Yankees make the postseason are equally misguided in their reasoning. Case and point: today I heard a caller to WFAN actually argue that the Yankees will make the playoffs because they have a $200 million payroll. When pressed as to explain how that guaranteed them a berth, the caller argued, "They haven't missed the playoffs in any year that they've had a $200 million payroll!"

Gulp.

Well, I just don't know where I fall in this debate. To say the Yankees are done is premature, but to say they are going to make a run into October seems ignorant. So, to see just how much doo-doo this team has stepped in, I went back and looked at the standings as of August 14th in each year of the Yanks' playoff run. What I found should alarm us all.

8/14/2008: 64-57
AL East: 9 G back of Tampa Bay (3rd Place)
Wild Card: 6 G back of Boston (3rd Place)

8/14/2007: 67-52
AL East: 5 G back of Boston (2nd Place)
Wild Card: 1/2 G back of Seattle (2nd Place)

8/14/2006: 69-46
AL East: 2 G ahead of Boston (1st Place)

8/14/2005: 64-52
AL East: 4 1/2 G back of Boston (2nd Place)
Wild Card: 3 1/2 G back of Oakland (2nd Place)

8/14/2004: 75-41
AL East: 10 1/2 G ahead of Boston (1st Place)

8/14/2003: 72-47
AL East: 3 G ahead of Boston (1st Place)

8/14/2002: 74-44
AL East: 5 G ahead of Boston (1st Place)

8/14/2001: 70-49
AL East: 4 G ahead of Boston (1st Place)

8/14/2000: 64-50
AL East: 4 G ahead of Boston (1st Place)

8/14/1999: 71-44
AL East: 6 1/2 G ahead of Boston (1st Place)

8/14/1998: 89-29 (!)
AL East: 18 1/2 G ahead of Boston (!) (1st Place)

8/14/1997: 71-48
AL East: 4 G behind Baltimore (2nd Place)
Wild Card: 7 G ahead of Texas (1st Place)

8/14/1996: 70-49
AL East: 7 1/2 G ahead of Baltimore (1st Place)

8/14/1995: 51-49
AL East: 10 G behind Boston (2nd Place)
Wild Card: 1 1/2 G behind Texas (tied for 2nd Place)

Remember last season when everyone was proclaiming that the Yankees were done in early July? It looked pretty bleak, but by 8/14/07 the team was essentially tied for the Wild Card lead and charging. Compare that to a 6 game deficit as of today...not good. Also, in 1995 (before the soon-to-be-powerhouse-Yankees was fully in place) the team was only 2 games over .500 but a mere 1 1/2 games out of a Wild Card berth. Compare that, again, to our current situation and that knot in your stomach might just grow a little tighter.

So, what am I saying? In short: in their decade-and-a-half run, the Yankees have never been this far behind this late in the season . Thus, while we certainly can't count them out, the Yankees will literally have to overcome their deepest statistical deficit in order to make the playoffs for a 14th straight year.

We're not giving up here. We're just being realistic.

Oh, and stop citing 1978 as your argument that the team is going to make it. On 8/14/1978 the Yankees were 8 games behind the Red Sox (without the benefit of a Wild Card race) whereas the Bombers find themselves 9 games in back of Tampa Bay today. Moreover, the '78 argument is rendered moot because of the fact that the reason people still talk about 1978 is because it was a once-in-a-freaking-lifetime anomaly.
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When John Sterling Thinks You Suck, You Must Really Suck

The Yankees are spiraling out of control, and you need not actually watch a game to understand that this is true. All you need to do is listen.

Normally, on the radio side of things, John Sterling views the Yanks with the proverbial rose-colored glasses. When things go well, it's due to the perfection of the pinstripes; when things go awry, well, "you just can't figure this game out." On the flipside (the TV side), Michael Kay likes to avoid any genuine criticism of the Bombers for fear of offending sensitive YES Network ears (i.e., the suits that sign his checks).

To listen to both of these yakkers in the last two days is to listen to two "glass half-full" voices that are ready to simply smash said glass against the floor.

Yesterday, in the midst of what would become yet another crushing loss, Sterling took the Yankees to task for repeatedly failing to get runners in from third with less than two outs. With no clever homerun calls on the horizon, and seemingly at his wit's end, The Voice literally counted-up the missed opportunities, conjecturing that, had the Yankees shown any ability with RISP throughout the year, the team would not only be winning this game, but would be atop their division. Tough talk from a dude that spends 75% of his air time repeating the word "amazing."

Meanwhile, Michael Kay, during tonight's Yanks/Twins game, became nearly apoplectic as the boys (yet again) failed to drive-in a runner from third (this time with no one out). "Un-be-lievable" enunciated Kay as Melky Cabrera grounded into a routine double play to end the inning. He then spent the better part of the next half-inning theorizing on just how an entire lineup could fail so miserably, so often, in trying to complete a simple task.

While these examples may not seem earth-shatteringly critical, the simple fact that they were uttered at all (by these two, no less) is proof positive that the organization is in full-fledged panic mode. And, really, who can blame them?
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To The Contrary, Sign Sexson

Many, many, many Yankees fans and bloggers (and media personalities, and scouts, and omnipresent "sources") have railed against the idea of bringing Richie Sexson to The Bronx for the remainder of the season. No one wants anything to do with this "loser" for whom "the Yankees have no need," to borrow a couple of remarks from other commentaries.

However, if I may be so bold (and I may cuz it's my site), this is actually shortsighted resignation on the part of the fans. Let me explain:

First of all, Sexson will play for the league minimum wherever he lands, as Seattle is still on the hook for the remainder of his $15,500,000 salary in 2008 (gulp).

Secondly, to say that the Yankees have no need for a right-handed bat is lunacy. All of their power, with the exception of A-Rod, comes from the left side. Furthermore, at this point, two of those left-handed hitters are on the shelf (Matsui and Damon). Tell me, are you truly comfortable with the menacing presence of Jose Molina, Wilson Betemit, righty-Melky, and an occasional appearance by Justin "God-Fearing" Christian?

No, neither am I. So, please don't tell me that Sexson has no roll. He's an acutal first baseman, with a career Fielding % of .994 (which is more than can be said for Betemit, Jorge Posada, and -- let's face it -- Jason Giambi), and he's a right-handed hitter who, when he connects, hits the ball a long friggin' way. All of these things are currently lacking in Yankees Universe.

And lastly -- and here's where I blow your mind -- for all of Sexson's shittiness this year, he's been insanely good against left-handed pitching. Please observe:

vs. Lefties (in 61 AB): .344 BA / .423 OBP / .623 SLG / 1.046 OPS

Yowzas! Not bad for a dude who just got cut by one of the worst teams in baseball.

Of course, against righties, Sexson is atrocious (.178 / .281 / .304 / .585), but the point here is that the Yankees won't ever, ever, ever need to use him against right-handed pitching! He will play solely against lefties and leave the righties to face the overstocked, lefty-hitting 1B contingent. And, his role as glorified bench player will be made completely palatable by the fact the Mariners are picking up the tab.

So, bring on Richie Sexson for all the reasons stated above.

Those, and the fact that he's got "Sex" in his name, making our job as bloggers much, much easier.
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Recipe For a .500 Team

Tonight's ridiculous loss to the Minnesota Twins encapsulated everything that is pathetic about the 2008 version of the New York Yankees. Everyone keeps waiting for "the turnaround," but for every couple of wins will come a couple of losses, in quick succession. That said, let's take the events of tonight's game and apply it to the season as a whole; a season that looks like it is headed down a dark (i.e. postseason-less) road. Here's the must-have list when putting together a .500 year:

1. Get Lots of Hits, But Don't Bother Scoring: The Yankees had 15 hits tonight and 5 runs. That's an infuriating ratio...unless, of course, you love singles. Somehow, the Yankees continue to put men on in every possible combination and still find ways to leave them stranded. In an effort to speed up play, I recommend that, from now on, the Yankees simply put two guys on base at the start of each offensive inning, tell the scoreboard guy to add two hits to their total, and then proceed to make three consecutive outs. It's quicker, more efficient baseball.

2. Make Sure Kyle Farnsworth Gets The Ball In Tight Situations: Can Joba start and relieve? For all the talk of Farnsworth's newfound confidence, he sure still does love to cough up runs in big spots! Homeruns, doubles, untimely walks...Kyle can deliver in any one of many heartbreaking fashions. Seeing him return to the set-up roll is like having an old friend move back into the neighborhood...only now he's an alcoholic, and he keeps coming over to use your bathroom because his is "broken," and then, after he leaves, your wallet's missing, and your wife doesn't want you to let him come over anymore, but you insist that ol' Farnsey really is a "good dude" and is just going through a rough time, and then, one night, he shoots your dog and says that he mistook it for Big Foot.

3. Remember That Leads Are Finite, and Do Not Have To Be Held: Thanks, Andy Pettitte. Your formerly-hormoned ass continues to handle leads about as well as your fragile psyche is handling the Roger Clemens fiasco. Jesus Christ, man! (No, Andy...over here. JC isn't around. It's just you and me.) Three leads blown tonight, and two of them of more than one run. Brilliant, gritty, battle-tested performance there, sir. I salute you. Unfortunately, Chien-Ming Wang and Mike Mussina seem to be following your lead. Aside: Can someone tell them I wasn't being serious, please?

4. Make Sure Your Best Hitters Develop Weird, Unhelpful Habits. Hideki Matsui is second in the American League in average and yet pulls off of EVERY GODDAMN pitch he sees. Tonight's beauty came in the ninth inning when, after A-Rod reached to start the inning and immediately began fucking with Joe Nathan's head at first base, Hideki put an end to that ballyhoo by rolling his hands over on an outside pitch and grounding into a double play. Game over. Add to that Robbie Cano's attempted bunt with 2-on and nobody out earlier in the night and you have the makings of complete offensive ineptitude.

5. Put All of Your "Championship Dreams" on the Shoulders of Children: Joba starts Tuesday! Joba starts Tuesday! Joba starts Tuesday! Thank goodness! Finally, our prayers have been answered! What's that? Shelley Duncan has a homerun stroke! Why, even better! More, you say? Scott Patterson's funky delivery "baffles" hitters? When can I order my playoff tickets? And you're telling me that Melky Cabrera's OBP is nearly .300?! Huzzah! The day is ours!
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The Madman Says: The Yankees Are DOA

The reason the slow starts of the last three years have been so frustrating to fans is because, deep down, we knew that the Yankees were a great team that hadn't clicked. We expected / knew that things would turn and each loss merely prolonged unnecessary agony. This year's .500-ish start has a different feel. Somehow, even though the record is actually better at this stage than in seasons' past, the team may actually be playing at the level we should expect. And that, friends, is a scary thought.

Before even taking into account the frightening news on Jorge Posada being reported today by The New York Times, there are a few signs that point toward a anti-climactic 2008:

1. Help Us Andy/Wang, You're Our Only Hope: At this stage, Chien-Ming Wang and Andy Pettitte absolutely have to be lights-out to keep the Yankees afloat. With the question marks behind them in the rotation, the team cannot afford to have shaky outings from their "aces." Wang has held up his end of the bargain (as witnessed by yet another gem against the Indians today), but even a bad start here or there could keep the team from digging out of the holes they will inevitably dig. Pettitte, meanwhile, still looks to have good stuff, but his performance against the Tribe on Friday night (5 IP, 5 R, 8 H, 3 BB) is the type of outing that will certainly rear its ugly head from time to time if only because Andy is older.

2. The Learning Curve: I speak here of Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy. Let's face it, Kennedy was likely one pitch away yesterday, against the Indians, from being sent back to Scranton. The fact that he regrouped after a 3rd inning that saw him wilt under the pressure of the situation has bought him another start or two, but as has been addressed ad nauseum by every Yankees blog, he'll need to learn to trust his stuff, throw strikes, be aggressive in the zone, etc. This will take time, and lots of it. The same goes for Hughes. He, too, has looked overwhelmed and sporadically unsure of his game. Does this mean that they are busts? Absolutely not. Hughes, especially, has the goods; however, to expect them to click within 2 months of their first full year in the Majors is a lot to ask. They will probably need this year, at minimum, to turn themselves into Big League throwers.

3. The 'Pen Returns To Earth: Lots of people got excited, in the first few weeks of the season, about how sharp the bullpen looked, especially with Joba Chamberlain and Mariano Rivera leading the charge. And, while Joba and Mo still look great (Rivera especially impressive), the rest of the group has shown their true colors. LaTroy Hawkins and Kyle Farnsworth may have their moments, but the bad will almost surely outweigh the good, leaving them forever-undependable. Brian Bruney (we hardly knew ye'!) is gone for the year, facing ankle surgery, and while the injury will keep us from knowing for sure, my guess is that he was going to prove unreliable as well, as he did last year. Billy Traber's deal with the devil ran out quicker than expected, and he's back in the minors. Ross Ohlendorff is being overused and doesn't seem to have a role. Is the the long man? The mop-up guy? Or the 9th inning, tie-game, bases loaded stopper, as he was yesterday? Meanwhile, Chris Britton and Jonathan Albaladejo will likely be up and down all year, filling in when necessary. All in all, the 'pen is exactly what we feared it would be: a question mark at best; a hindrance at worst.

4. Slow Start, or Death Knell?: While, essentially, every member of the offense shares responsibilty for Yanks' putrid average with RISP, I'll focus my ire on Robinson Cano, who truly looks like a defeated man. As of today, he has the second lowest batting average of any MLB'er qualified for the batting title. His power is non-existent, as is his sweet, all-fields swing. More importantly, however, his confidence is non-existent, too. Surely, he will not end the year hitting .150, but if the Yankees want to contend this year, they cannot wait around for guys like Cano (and Giambi, Damon, ARod, etc.) to get going. They have to be off and running to make up for the runs that the starting staff and bullpen will surely give up.

5. Accept Your Defeats With Quiet Dignity and Grace: I am not a believer in the old "chemistry helps a team win" idea. If you have diversified talent on the field, you should win whether or not you hate your second baseman's guts or not. So, in making this criticism I am not suggesting that the Yankees lose a lot because of "intangible forces," but merely observing the dynamic of the team. Frankly, Joe Girardi looks like he's wound tighter than a South American-produced baseball circa 1998 (Remember when everybody thought the homerun barrage of the late '90's was because of a juiced ball and not juiced blood veins? Good times.) Girardi, in some respects got the cushiest job in baseball, as well as the hardest. Expectations are soaring, but reality is sinking in. This is not a good combo, and Joe II looks very, very stressed. That stress seems to be manifesting in over-strategising (a different lineup every night, oddly timed days off for starters, the destruction of the depth chart, etc.) Add in Hank Steinbrenner's inability to shut the fuck up, and you've got the makings of a season in which the game on the field is continuously overshadowed by the griping in the back office.

I make these remarks without any inherent anger or disappointment. But, really, am I wrong here? There is no joy in Mudville.
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[Emergency] Hi! My Name Is: Morgan Ensberg (1B / 3B / OF)

Each day, "Piss and Wynegar" will present Yankees "player previews" for the coming 2008 season. In what can only be referred to as a "revelatory" strategy, we will use statistics, as well as opinion, to further our analysis.

The Yankees seem to be cultivating a new Spring Training tradition: invite an also-ran utility man to camp and let him make the big club. Last year, Josh Phelps lit it up in Tampa, made the team, and proceeded to crash and burn in the Bronx. This year, it appears that Morgan Ensberg is our man. He's been added to the 40 man roster, and rumor has it that his place amongst the elite 25 is almost guaranteed.

Over the last two years, Ensberg's name has really only come up in conversation when prefaced with "What the hell happened to...?" In 2005, as a 3B, he was a bonafied star for the Astros, belting 36 homers, driving in 101, and posting a SLG of .557. He had not had a year like it before, and he would not have one like it again (though he did hit 25 HR in less than 400 AB in 2003 while batting .291, so he had that going for him). So, what the hell did happen to Morgan Ensberg? Well, injuries led to terrible performance, which led to a loss of employment, which led to a Yankees non-roster invitation.

And, voila! It looks like Morgan's coming north. For what it's worth, we're kind of psyched, even if his ugly 2007 numbers do make him look cooked. He can play 1B, 3B and even dabbles in the outfield (apparently). What's more, the fact that he won't be an everyday player (at least until Jason Giambi suffers a season-threatening paper cut) means that he won't be expected to re-live 2005. In short: Ensberg only has to be slightly better than mediocre and the guy can officially resurrect his career.

Welcom to the club, Morgan. Jason Lane hates you.

To read previous "Hi! My Name Is" entries, click here.

Hi! My Name Is: Hideki Matsui (LF / DH)

Each day, "Piss and Wynegar" will present Yankees "player previews" for the coming 2008 season. In what can only be referred to as a "revelatory" strategy, we will use statistics, as well as opinion, to further our analysis.

Hideki Matsui enters ’08 with a freshly-scoped knee and an open-wound in his cheek, after being dangled as trade bait by the Yankees during the off-season. Having briefly appeared to be headed for San Francisco, Godzilla leaves his heart in the Bronx and returns, following a 2007 campaign that, while not awe-inspiring, did produce 25 HR, 103 RBI, and an OBA and SLG consistent with his MLB career stats. Not bad when one considers, also, that his 2006 season was almost entirely lost, due to a broken wrist.

Despite the statistically “just fine” year, Matsui looked awkward at times. Like Johnny Damon, his mediocre-at-best defense and throwing arm seemed more pronounced, especially early in the year when (virtually) the entire team flatlined. As a result, whispers of Matsui’s decline have begun to echo (as they have for many of his teammates), and matters haven't been helped by his failure to appear in a game this Spring Training following the surgery; however, if he puts up another 2007 in 2008, then he can keep declining for as long as he wants.

What struck us as surprising, though, was that when rumors of Matsui-to-San Fran got hot and heavy this winter, nobody seemed to worry about losing this proven, middle-of-the-order bat. Do they expect more?

To read previous "Hi! My Name Is" entries, click here.

Hi! My Name Is: Melky Cabrera (CF)

Each day, "Piss and Wynegar" will present Yankees "player previews" for the coming 2008 season. In what can only be referred to as a "revelatory" strategy, we will use statistics, as well as opinion, to further our analysis.


Ah, Melky. Average, average, Melky. It is with great skepticism that we welcome Mr. Cabrera back to the Yankees starting lineup, having avoided being shipped to Minnesota for Johan Santana in a deal that, inexplicably, Bombers fans rejected en masse. The question is: why? Melky’s popularity is baffling. He tracks balls awkwardly in the outfield, doesn’t walk (he trailed only Robinson Cano in fewest BB’s amongst starters), has no power to speak of, and had an OBP of only .327 (worse than Mr. Cano who, as just mentioned, actually walked fewer times than the Milk Man).

There remains an expectation that Cabrera will suddenly shed his caterpillar exterior and become the beautiful butterfly of our dreams, but the likelihood of that gets smaller and smaller with each passing day. Virtually every “analyst” who speaks of Melky labels him as a 4th outfielder, and yet here he is, starting every day in the most hallowed of Yankee Stadium positions. While 73 RBI from a guy hitting in the bottom 1/3 of the order looks perfectly fine, we can’t help but feel that the Melkster has somehow cast a spell upon New York City that enables mediocrity to pass as star-quality talent. In short, we expect more of the same from Cabrera this year: a few outfield assists and a lot of pedestrian offence. But, he does do those fun dances in the dugout when guys hit homeruns!

To read previous "Hi! My Name Is" entries, click here.