Optimist? Pessimist? Either Way, You're Wrong

With the dreadful 3-7 West Coast road trip officially (and unfortunately) in the books, many Yankees fans, Yankees haters, sports writers, and talk show hosts have decided that now is the time to declare the Yankees dead in the water. In fact, in today's New York Post, Peter King has gone so far as to eulogize the Bombers' 2008 campaign.

Okay. Fine. You're more than welcome to dance on the grave of a team that looks more pathetic than it has in recent memory. The road trip was atrocious, and we certainly can't deny that the boys currently deserve a vote of "no confidence"; however, most people are burying the Yankees for silly reasons. Pessimists argue that the Yankees show "no heart," "no desire," "inconsistency," blah, blah, blah.

On the other hand, optimists who are hell-bent on seeing the Yankees make the postseason are equally misguided in their reasoning. Case and point: today I heard a caller to WFAN actually argue that the Yankees will make the playoffs because they have a $200 million payroll. When pressed as to explain how that guaranteed them a berth, the caller argued, "They haven't missed the playoffs in any year that they've had a $200 million payroll!"

Gulp.

Well, I just don't know where I fall in this debate. To say the Yankees are done is premature, but to say they are going to make a run into October seems ignorant. So, to see just how much doo-doo this team has stepped in, I went back and looked at the standings as of August 14th in each year of the Yanks' playoff run. What I found should alarm us all.

8/14/2008: 64-57
AL East: 9 G back of Tampa Bay (3rd Place)
Wild Card: 6 G back of Boston (3rd Place)

8/14/2007: 67-52
AL East: 5 G back of Boston (2nd Place)
Wild Card: 1/2 G back of Seattle (2nd Place)

8/14/2006: 69-46
AL East: 2 G ahead of Boston (1st Place)

8/14/2005: 64-52
AL East: 4 1/2 G back of Boston (2nd Place)
Wild Card: 3 1/2 G back of Oakland (2nd Place)

8/14/2004: 75-41
AL East: 10 1/2 G ahead of Boston (1st Place)

8/14/2003: 72-47
AL East: 3 G ahead of Boston (1st Place)

8/14/2002: 74-44
AL East: 5 G ahead of Boston (1st Place)

8/14/2001: 70-49
AL East: 4 G ahead of Boston (1st Place)

8/14/2000: 64-50
AL East: 4 G ahead of Boston (1st Place)

8/14/1999: 71-44
AL East: 6 1/2 G ahead of Boston (1st Place)

8/14/1998: 89-29 (!)
AL East: 18 1/2 G ahead of Boston (!) (1st Place)

8/14/1997: 71-48
AL East: 4 G behind Baltimore (2nd Place)
Wild Card: 7 G ahead of Texas (1st Place)

8/14/1996: 70-49
AL East: 7 1/2 G ahead of Baltimore (1st Place)

8/14/1995: 51-49
AL East: 10 G behind Boston (2nd Place)
Wild Card: 1 1/2 G behind Texas (tied for 2nd Place)

Remember last season when everyone was proclaiming that the Yankees were done in early July? It looked pretty bleak, but by 8/14/07 the team was essentially tied for the Wild Card lead and charging. Compare that to a 6 game deficit as of today...not good. Also, in 1995 (before the soon-to-be-powerhouse-Yankees was fully in place) the team was only 2 games over .500 but a mere 1 1/2 games out of a Wild Card berth. Compare that, again, to our current situation and that knot in your stomach might just grow a little tighter.

So, what am I saying? In short: in their decade-and-a-half run, the Yankees have never been this far behind this late in the season . Thus, while we certainly can't count them out, the Yankees will literally have to overcome their deepest statistical deficit in order to make the playoffs for a 14th straight year.

We're not giving up here. We're just being realistic.

Oh, and stop citing 1978 as your argument that the team is going to make it. On 8/14/1978 the Yankees were 8 games behind the Red Sox (without the benefit of a Wild Card race) whereas the Bombers find themselves 9 games in back of Tampa Bay today. Moreover, the '78 argument is rendered moot because of the fact that the reason people still talk about 1978 is because it was a once-in-a-freaking-lifetime anomaly.
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